By Tobias Ide, Karima Ben Bih

In the complex landscape of global challenges, the intersection of disasters with fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) poses unique challenges for many countries.

On the one hand, FCV conditions, such as compromised security, damaged infrastructure, and diminished trust in authorities, make countries more vulnerable to natural hazards like droughts, earthquakes, floods, or storms. On the other hand, researchers and policymakers alike have expressed concerns that disasters can exacerbate ongoing complex crises in FCV settings, potentially triggering anti-government protests or weakening state institutions.

The World Bank’s work in disaster risk reduction and management in FCV settings is multifaceted. It includes enhancing our understanding of disaster risk, aligning disaster risk management (DRM) and climate adaptation agendas, integrating DRM into fiscal and public debt management, and exploring innovative risk financing instruments. A significant focus is placed on social inclusion, particularly in expanding social protection funds and safety nets that specifically target the poor and marginalized. 

A key to this approach is solid evidence on the dynamics of how disasters influence conflicts which has so far largely been lacking. The recently published book “Catastrophes, Confrontations and Constraints” provides valuable insights into this area based on extensive case studies from 21 countries. 

The book reveals that while disasters are not usually the primary drivers of conflict, they can play a significant role by interacting with a broad range of political and economic factors to influence the behavior of both government security forces and rebel groups. For example, disasters affect armed conflict dynamics if they impact at least one conflict party and occur in highly vulnerable countries.

In 25 percent of all cases, disasters have escalated armed conflicts, demonstrating the interplay between disaster management and security. This research offers evidence that successful DRM not only improves populations’ living conditions, but also contributes to broader security benefits. However, another 25 percent of cases show disasters leading to a de-escalation of the fighting. This typically occurs when one party is weakened or distracted by the disaster, while the other lacks strength to exploit this vulnerability, often due to the disaster’s impact. These periods, although brief and seldom exceeding 12 months, offer critical opportunities. They create a conducive environment for aid delivery, recovery planning, and future disaster risk reduction as the intensity of fighting temporarily decreases. Disasters can even open the door for more conflict-sensitive DRM, and perhaps aiding in pursuit of peace. For instance, after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Aceh, international aid and consequent push for negotiations facilitated a lasting peace process.

As global disasters and armed conflicts intensify, these findings are becoming even more relevant. They provide important insights for implementing effective disaster risk reduction in FCV contexts. This involves developing tailored disaster risk reduction and climate action strategies that cater to the unique needs and capacities of different FCV settings. However, challenges remain, such as data gaps which often obscure the full scope of disaster risks and impacts. This is especially acute in countries with limited data resources experiencing FCV, which hinders accurate and integrated risk assessment and planning. Addressing this, the World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) has been developing new methodologies since 2018 that consider the unique contexts of FCV countries. Under its  Disaster-FCV Nexus thematic area, GFDRR has been producing analytics to overcome these information shortfalls in FCV environments. Additionally, GFDRR offers advisory support to World Bank operational teams to enhance disaster resilience and risk reduction programs in these challenging contexts. 

The World Bank is also developing a framework for operationalizing resilience across various FCV contexts. This framework aims to identify and prioritize disaster and climate actions that are best suited to address the FCV threats faced by each country. Concurrently, efforts are underway to boost crisis preparedness, including efforts to increase the capacity of fragile and conflict-affected countries to effectively manage overlapping challenges posed by climate change, macro-economic shocks, pandemics, environmental degradation and food insecurity. 

Another challenge is the multiple scales required in DRM implementation (national, subregional, local). FCV countries often face complex and dynamic systems that require a nuanced understanding of the interplay between various factors. Aggregating data and identifying objective benchmarks can be challenging, as the factors influencing the disaster-FCV nexus risk can vary over time and place. The World Bank is working to overcome this challenge by adopting approaches that consider localized contexts and by utilizing partnerships with community-based agencies, CSOs, and the private sector.

Much work is still required from the international community —specifically for those working at the nexus of peace and development— to better understand the intersection of compounding disasters and FCV risks. Working with various partners at all levels, the World Bank and GFDRR are committed to continue producing analytics and providing advisory support to ensure the effective implementation of conflict-sensitive disaster risk reduction and disaster resilience programs in FCV contexts.