Disaster and climate risk assessments are the foundation of decision-making processes for a wide variety of actors from the public to the private sector. Quantifying risk and expected future losses is not only the first step in any disaster risk reduction program but the outputs and scenarios of a risk assessment contribute to structuring overall development project and options. GFDRR supports the development of risk assessments in a number of ways, including:

  • Conducting risk assessment studies in more than 40 countries;
  • Developing guidelines for risk assessment methodologies;
  • Supporting the development and distribution of spatial risk datasets;
  • Setting up platforms as risk analysis and communication tools for decision-makers.


Making Cities and Communities Safer

Since its inception, GFDRR has focused on reducing the vulnerabilities of communities and cities resulting from rapid urbanization that has led to uncontrolled population growth in hazard-prone areas. Support from GFDRR is influencing the decisions of urban planners and enabling them to pursue a sustainable, climate-resilient growth, which includes disaster risk reduction as core pillars.

A GFDRR-supported risk assessment in Dakar, Senegal has become a key building block of sustainable disaster risk reduction. The assessment, undertaken together with the government's Municipal Development Agency, evaluated natural hazards and climate change risks in the urban and peri-urban areas of Dakar, using state-of-the-art spatial analysis. The spatial study was complemented with a comprehensive analysis of the institutional framework for disaster risk management in the city. Based on this comprehensive two-step analysis of risk and institutional capacity, a broad action plan for Dakar has identified ways to lower vulnerability even while Dakar's population is rapidly growing. The outcomes of the study have been incorporated into the agency's training modules for local and municipal governments in Senegal.

In Guatemala, vulnerability and risk mapping is being carried out for municipalities prone to floods and is expected to guide city planning and to enhance institutions' disaster preparedness. The project, which the Guatemalan government has included in its National Program of Risk Management, is a collective effort of the line ministries as well as the municipalities of the targeted areas. And in Djibouti, GFDRR supported the Comprehensive Approach to Risk Assessment (CARAD). This integrated risk analysis information system enables the development of suitable, versatile and effective tools for the evaluation and communication of risk, sensitizing decision makers to the potential losses deriving from natural hazards. At municipal level, this work facilitates quantifying the risks associated with climate change and improves land use planning to incorporate risk management.

Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA)

Analytical work funded by GFDRR helped in the creation of the Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA), a major initiative to understand and communicate disaster risk that provides an information platform to assist decision making in the public and private sector. CAPRA provides communities and national counterparts with comprehensive methods and tools for risk analysis and risk management, learning materials (such as an on-line atlas of hazard and risk in the countries) and capacity building initiatives for national institutions. CAPRA embraces an open-source concept and publishes its work on a community edited website for active participation from country counterparts from the government, academia and civil society. It creates awareness that most natural disasters are predictable, that impacts can be mitigated and that one can be better prepared. Started with seed funding from GFDRR in Nicaragua, the initiative has grown into a leveraged partnership between the World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, UNISDR, CEPREDENAC, and governmental institutions in Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua.

Risk assessments funded by GFDRR are used in many different ways. For example:

  • In Yemen: To inform land use planning and infrastructure building codes in the reconstruction efforts after the 2008 floods.
  • In Yemen’s capitalSana’a: To provide the basis for an integrated Storm Water Management Plan and City Drainage Program.
  • In the Pacific Islands: To determine the viability of financial risk pooling opportunities.
  •  In Nepal and Bangladesh: To introduce affordable and reliable agricultural insurance for small scale farmers.
  • In Mozambique and Malawi: To determine the extent of economic vulnerability to droughts and floods and to identify priority mitigation measures to be incorporated in economic and sectoral development strategies.
  • In China: To create an efficient and financially sustainable catastrophe insurance system.
  • In Indonesia: To form the basis of the National Action Plan for disaster risk reduction (NAP-DRR 2010-2013) .
  • In Madagascar: To provide a basis for supporting the design of comprehensive risk management strategies at national and sub-national levels in key growth sectors.
    In Seychelles: To design scenarios for emergency response, emergency plans, disaster management training, and simulation exercises.
  • In Chile and Mexico: To establish prerequisites for their Global Catastrophe Mutual Bonds. 
  • In Dakar, Senegal: To increase awareness about the risks of new settlements in hazardous peri-urban areas and inform land use planning.
  • In Central America: To establish a public risk modeling platform which assists governments, academia, and civil societies with estimating impacts of future disasters and developing risk mitigation strategies.