“This report synthesizes our knowledge about the effects of natural hazards on human welfare, particularly in its economic aspects. It is a remarkable combination of case studies, data on many scales, and the application of economic principles to the problems posed by earthquakes, abnormal weather, and the like. It provides a deep understanding of the relative roles of the market, government intervention, and social institutions in determining and improving both the prevention and the response to hazardous occurrences.”
- KENNETH J. ARROW, Nobel Prize in Economics, 1972
“This excellent and timely study is a wake-up call to all of us responsible for managing and mitigating floods, earthquakes and other natural hazards.”
- BRUCE BABBIT, Former Secretary of the Interior, USA
“This book on natural hazards and unnatural disasters is very well done on a topic of supreme and immediate importance. I particularly like the chapters on how quickly do countries and regions recover from disasters - a topic discussed at least ever since John Stuart Mill - and how good are markets in responding in terms of land and other values to the prospect of disasters. I strongly recommend the book to non-economists as well as economists, and to government officials who must cope with floods, oil spills, earthquakes, and other disasters.”
- GARY S. BECKER, Nobel Prize in Economics, 1992
"Three keywords come to mind after reading this World Bank report: prevention, strong international cooperation and priority on helping human beings affected by disasters with compassion and dignity. With this report the World Bank highlights what international actors, national governments, local authorities and individuals should constantly consider when discussing prevention measures. Governments must take the lead in implementing preventive actions both directly, by allocating efficiently public resources, and indirectly, by showing people how to protect themselves. This is the real challenge that not only the World Bank but all of us have to face. This is the dream that we have and it can become true if we are ready to pay the (political) price to achieve it. This ideal mirrors the belief and the actions undertaken by the Italian Civil Protection.”
- GUIDO BERTOLASO, Head of the Italian Civil Protection
“How is it that some communities are able to soften the blows they face when rare natural events hit them, whereas others experience huge suffering? Natural Hazards, Unnatural Disasters contains the tightest analytical and empirical investigation into the question. It's a terrific book."
- SIR PARTHA DASGUPTA, Frank Ramsey Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge
“It is a sad commentary on how aid is media-driven that official aid agencies and NGOs will make a huge effort for disaster relief and virtually no effort for prevention. This report courageously makes the case for redressing the balance. It dramatizes as never before that “natural disasters” are not so natural – prevention failures cost myriad lives, usually among the poorest. It issues a challenge: reverse the shameful neglect of prevention so as to save those lives.”
- WILLIAM EASTERLY, author of The White Man's Burden (2006)
“It is the moral and ethical duty of all humanitarian and development workers to ensure that every dollar is well spent. Thus this study is an essential primer for all policy makers and practitioners concerned with disaster risk reduction and recovery – even more so in this age of frugal necessity. In building community safety and resilience, sensible spending, greater transparency and accountability are essential to do more, do better, and reach further in tackling the most significant vulnerabilities that confront humanity. This report highlights the need for increased resources and innovative partnerships, in line with the Red Cross Red Crescent experience which shows that it really pays to invest in disaster prevention.”
- BEKELE GELETA, Secretary General of the International Federation of the Red Cross
“This book is a must-read for policy makers and concerned individuals all over the world. For too long, leaders have done too little to prevent the transformation of natural hazards into (un)natural disasters, and then moved too slowly once they occur. And now the risks are growing with rapid urbanization and climate change. This book organizes vast amounts of material into compelling analyses and clear messages, and the authors put forward pragmatic policy suggestions that blend market incentives with “smart” regulation and sound governance principles. They need to be taken seriously.”
- SRI MULYANI INDRAWATI, Managing Director, World Bank; Former Minister of Finance, Indonesia
“Warning people of impending hazards saves lives and livelihoods. But we can still do better as shown in this excellent report! With clear arguments, statements and evidence, it is a convincing call for governments the world over to improve the detection and forecasting of hazards risks, and to develop better warnings for sectoral planning to reduce human and economic losses that are setting back socio-economic development. Improvement of early warning systems is clearly an investment in sustainable development, as demonstrated in many countries where benefits exceed costs many times over.”
- MICHEL JARRAUD, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization
“When a natural hazard strikes innocent victims, people from around the world pitch in to help. It is incumbent on policymakers to make sure that this generosity is well-used. This report is one of the first to treat hazards from an economic perspective of value-for-money. That lens—dismal at it may seem—provides crucial insights on why we should spend more on preventive action (and why we don’t); on why reliance on formal rules and planning does not always work; and on why we need to think of disaster risk prevention in broader developmental terms. The report provides a detailed, welcome and timely blueprint for reducing disasters in a period when natural hazards appear to be on the rise.”
- HOMI KHARAS, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
“I have just read your report and find it both fascinating and right on target! The deep problems result from … terrible governance over a long time which then destroys the trust that individuals have in their government and in each other. Rebuilding is not just of the physical world but also the much tougher job of rebuilding trust and social capital. I wish that the steps toward achieving that tough job were easy and quick but they are not. You are doing very important work.”
- ELINOR OSTROM, Nobel Prize in Economics, 2009
“Neither adverse economic shocks nor natural hazards are avoidable, but both citizens, economic agents and governments can do a lot to limit or mitigate their worst effects through an intelligent combination of prevention, insurance and sensible coping. This book is a primer on how to deal with natural hazard risks so they do not become natural “disasters,” as is aptly suggested by the title. It emphasizes what Governments can do to promote effective prevention…It also examines the role of catastrophic insurance and shows that in spite of its key importance, market and government failures are quite pervasive in this area.”
- GUILLERMO PERRY, Former Minister of Finance and Public Credit, Colombia
“This book-length report by staff of the World Bank on the economics of preventing (un)natural disasters is as nearly a definitive treatment of the subject as we are likely to obtain. The combination of economic analysis with factual description, personal narratives, charts, data, photographs, and references makes a compelling multidisciplinary case for different kinds of preventive efforts targeted on the specific causes and likely consequences of potential disasters in every part of the globe.”
- RICHARD POSNER, author of Catastrophe: Risk and Response (2004)
“This report is a gem. The language is clear and simple; the organization is logical; the verbal illustrations are impressive; the maps and diagrams are comprehensible; the theoretical discussions are easily understood; and the subject is compelling: how to understand hazards and how to cope, in advance and after, earthquakes, storms, floods, droughts, and extreme events. It is a model to be studied and emulated. It is a team effort, contradicting the popular notion that a camel is a horse described by a committee. I don't remember reading any other 240 pages on a deadly serious subject that were so informative and so easily digested. Congratulations to the authors and all their advisors and reviewers.”
- THOMAS C. SCHELLING, Nobel Prize in Economics, 2005
"This is an excellent piece of work with really practical lessons that will influence the way disasters are handled - and indeed prevented. The report could inform and illuminate policy analyses in a way that would make a gigantic difference to the lives of vulnerable people. I welcome it warmly".
- AMARTYA SEN, Nobel Prize in Economics, 1998
“The main thesis of this report, that prevention matters and requires just as much intelligence as funds, is correct. But not all risks can be prevented, and the report does a brilliant job of analyzing how we share or cope with residual risk. I recommend this report to any reader who wants to understand the true nature of catastrophe risk and insurance markets beyond the relatively mundane issues of supply, demand, and the market-clearing price for risk. This report might even help students of the subprime mortgage debacle understand what really went wrong as that market lost all sight of the principles laid out in this terrific report.”
- JOHN SEO, Co-Founder, Fermat Capital Management, LLC; Former State-Appointed Advisor to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund
“I happened to read this careful, thoughtful, studious report near the beginning of hurricane season. There will be another hurricane season next year, and the year after. There will also be droughts, floods and earthquakes. Responses will be more effective, before and after the event, and damage will be less if governments, relief organizations and others learn from this study. Ignorance is not bliss in hurricane season.”
- ROBERT M. SOLOW, Nobel Prize in Economics, 1987
“Natural Hazards, Unnatural Disasters provides policy makers with a new and valuable approach that focuses on the economics of reducing deaths and destruction from natural hazards. In a critical analysis across a range of topics, the report takes on a number of sacred cows by emphasizing the critical role of incentives (both private and public), freely functioning markets, the free flow of information, institutional arrangements, and the possibilities and limits to governmental actions. The report lays out the economics of hazards reduction for the non-specialist, draws on the latest literature, and supplements that literature with numerous supporting new empirical and analytical studies. It will be a standard reference in the hazards policy and research community.”
- RODNEY WEIHER, Former Chief Economist, NOAA
“This book represents the first systematic analysis of the management of extreme risks from a worldwide comparative perspective. It is a major contribution to an increasingly important field.”
- MARTIN WEITZMAN, Professor of Economics, Harvard University
“The world is continually beset with so-called natural disasters, with triggering events ranging from shaking earth and scorching weather, to severe storms and surging rivers. Such disasters impose a massive toll of human suffering, particularly on the poor. But the losses come not primarily from the actions of nature. Rather, as this wide ranging and insightful analysis demonstrates, they derive from the synergy of natural forces and misguided choices by humans. We enhance risks by channeling rivers and spewing greenhouse gases, and expose ourselves to the risks that prevail by building cities in flood zones and in manners vulnerable to earthquakes. And where dangers do exist, we often deal ineffectively by choosing recovery over prevention when the latter would be far less costly, and by failing to meld public and private mitigation efforts in cost-effective fashion. This study, remarkable for its clear thought and thorough documentation, could change the way we cope with the calamities.”
- RICHARD ZECKHAUSER, Frank P. Ramsey Professor of Political Economy, Harvard University
“As someone who repeatedly had to deal with the devastating consequences of severe natural hazards at the highest level of responsibility, I can appreciate the enormous value of this volume. It is long overdue. Its sound analysis and sensible policy prescriptions make this report mandatory reading for any person with duty, or plain interest, in this field.”
- ERNESTO ZEDILLO, Former President of Mexico; Director, Yale Center for the Study of Globalization